Hasnaa tamam kamal
Introduction
Unidentified gunmen have arrested a number of executive officials in Sudan, including senior ministers, following severe tensions in recent weeks between the Authority’s civilian and military components, as well as a street split between those demanding a military government and those demanding the handover of power to civilians.
After an unknown military group approached his home early Monday, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk was placed under house arrest as a result of these actions.
The most important parts of “Al-” Burhan’s statement…
And the reactions to it
In response, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, President of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, issued nine resolutions in the face of military involvement and misgivings about Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk:
On the one hand, the President of the Sovereign Council’s decision to single out the transitional phase’s leadership is perilous, especially because it was unexpected.
Pressure between Sudanese internal groups is predicted to persist, with a mob sheet on Sudanese streets and civil disobedience.
There is no doubt that the circulation of such a paper between the two factions is dangerous, especially since Sudan has not yet progressed beyond societal divisions that may react to the weakness of State institutions and lead to a slide into violence, resulting in a new wave of conflict in Sudan and even diverting internal efforts to another juncture, is to stop the violence.
The future elections in 2023, on the other hand, will be under a lot of strain and will be influenced by the level of economic and political stability. There is no doubt that Sudan’s political and international relationships will change dramatically in the next years.
Scenarios
Given the overlaps and complexity of the Sudanese landscape, a variety of outcomes remains possible.
Civil disobedience succeeds:
This scenario relies on the success of civil disobedience and public demonstrations in pushing Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Burhan to retract his statement, a scenario that favors the gathering of Sudanese mutants and the Prime Minister in the Sovereign Council. Hamduk, but given the Panel’s definite orientation, this scenario is unlikely to happen.
Understandings among Sudanese parties:
This scenario is based on the assumption that the Sovereign Council will soon be heading to what it has dubbed “the Promised Land.” “With balanced understandings,” a dialogue between diverse factions will take place, a government will be created, and the situation will be restored. This circumstance is not fully dictated by chance.
Confrontation between the various factions:
The scenario of a conflict between protesting factions and the Sudanese Armed Forces is less than terrifying and cannot be proven as long as protests continue on Sudanese streets and Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al – Burhan sticks to his decisions.
Conformability with the Declaration of Proof:
This scenario is likely to keep the situation the same for the leaders of the isolated Sovereign Council, to complete the course in accordance with the new road map outlined in the communiqué, and likely to continue to deal in the same way with isolated civilian factions, and to take decisive steps in achieving this, such as attempting to explain his motivation for erasing certain of the constitutional document’s sections in order to absorb public outrage in Sudan, as well as the general tenor of such acts and ensuring the possibility of return.
