Rabaa Nour ElDeen Wazeer
Against the backdrop of the political events in Sudan, is the internal situation soon to be resolved? Is the state on track? Or is she tripping? The Panel took the oath of office before the President of the Judiciary, as President of the new Sovereignty Council, hours after it issued a decree announcing it. It also reinstated the constitutional document and appointed Hemetti as its deputy.
This step followed internal and external pressure on AL-Burhan to form a transitional sovereign council that would lead the country to stability and establish a genuine democratic transition. The group called for mass demonstrations in Khartoum next Saturday, but AL-Burhan preceded these moves, perhaps to try to block the Sudanese street and contain the situation.
On the basis of the above, we will try to analyze the latest developments in Sudan with regard to the establishment of the new Sovereign Council, as well as to analyze the most important internal and external reactions and the most anticipated scenarios for the future situation.
The profile of the new sovereign council
“AL-Burhan” announced the formation of a Transitional Sovereign Council under his presidency, the appointment of Hemetti as Deputy Commander of the Rapid Support Forces, and the abolition of the constitutional document. The Council consists of 13 members, including 9 members of the previous Council, as well as four members of the Forces. “Freedom and change,” replaced members of the previous Council, and the announcement of the representative of eastern Sudan was postponed pending further consultations between the parties.
This step by “AL-Burhan” is the result of international and domestic pressure to announce a road map for the country and the formation of a transitional authority to calm the situation.
On the composition of the Council, it is noted that it has tried to represent all Sudanese territories and armed groups, excluding the revolutionary and civilian forces that participated in the December Revolution. Some points cannot be overlooked, while the five military personnel of the previous Council still retain their seats in the new Council. The choice of AL-Burhan for these elements may depend primarily on the fact that they represent a political backdoor, and turn around its policies significantly. This is why the situation continues to escalate until there is an equitable representation of all categories of the civilian component, especially since the AL-Burhan that it respects the democratic course of the country and the need to give equal representation to all parties.
Possible scenarios
Given the overlaps and complexity of the Sudanese landscape, the landscape remains open to a number of scenarios, including:
Scenario 1
The success of isolated government movements: This scenario builds on the success of pressure from isolated government parties rejecting the Council’s decision, and the continuing protests on the Sudanese street to pressure General Abdel Fattah Burhan to reverse the decision to appoint the Council, this scenario seems to be in line with isolated government movements, United Nations statements and the European position on them, but it is an unlikely scenario.
Scenario 2
Civil and military parties sit at the dialogue table: This scenario is based on the trend of the Sovereign Council to engage in dialogue sessions with the various parties in an attempt to divide its statements and decisions, moving with the support of internally accepted intermediaries, This scenario has its face as a way of reducing differences between the parties, but until now I have shown no intention of leading such a dialogue, nor have there been intermediaries offering to lead such a dialogue.
Scenario 3
To complete the course according to AL-Burhan and confrontation between the various factions: This scenario is likely to be completed following the new road map announced in the AL-Burhan statement, to dilute the positions of the other parties to oppose the Sovereign Council, to complete the formation of the Government and all that has been announced. Given the continuing protests on the Sudanese streets, the scenario of confrontation between the protesting factions and the Sudanese Armed Forces may be alarming and cannot be confirmed.
At the end of the day, there is still a great deal of instability and instability on the part of the country. Sudan is expected to witness the processions of two million people on November 13 and 17. This will lead to a further deterioration in the Sudanese situation since there is a large section of the street that rejects these resolutions and sees them as a “coup d’état.” However, the demands of the Sudanese people and civic groups must be taken into account. It is expected that a new civilian Prime Minister will soon be announced to calm the situation.
